Apparently, there is an impending flood of democracy sweeping North Africa. That's what some people seem to think. I don't know what to make of it. While it sounds like a progressive sort of thing, I have my doubts. Recently, the Tunisians managed to chase away their dictatorial leaders out of the country. What started at some unfortunate soul dousing himself in paint thinner and setting fire to himself (ending in his death a few weeks later) has toppled a government and thrown the whole of North Africa in political chaos.
I am not sure what made the rulers of Tunisia flee. My guess is, they had enough funds stashed outside of the country and had a plan on what to do post-ousting. They probably had safe-havens sorted out (apparently some of the crooks are Canadian residents!) and made their way out rather than risk getting killed by popular anger. Perhaps the army said it would no longer support them, perhaps they were wishing for some peace and quite on the golf course somewhere nice.
Parts of this world are cheering on the youth of Egypt and Yemen in hopes that this event will precipitate a further revolution. I hardly doubt that will happen. Here's why. Egypt is not Tunisia. First, it is a much larger country. I heard someone say 85 million people. A few thousand youngsters who use twitter and come up with novel ways of protesting hardly speaks for the country. Second, Egypt has been under some kind of state of emergency for over 40 years (since the war with Israel in 1967). The Egyptian government and military/police forces have had years to prepare for these sorts of outbreaks.
Yemen might be another matter, though I don't see it ending up the way Tunisia seems to be ending up. If anything, Yemen seems to go the way of Somalia... a country armed to the teeth with little or no political leadership keeping the country functioning.
It was quite amusing to hear the Canadian Prime Minister speak of democracy while he was visiting Morocco yesterday. He was praising the steps taken by these protesters and discussing the merits of democracy. There's just one problem with that. He's in another country that isn't a democracy talking about a neighbour's revolt and overthrow of an autocratic government. Apparently, Canada is going to try and get a free trade agreement going with the Moroccans. Why not. Trade first, democracy later. Nearly worked with China eh.
I don't know if many of the folks who are cheering for these countries to throw away the shackles of autocracy and join the good law abiding states filled with democracy have really given much thought to the implications it might bring. Firstly, many of these states get support from the 'enlightened' countries of the world. In terms of foreign aid, Egypt gets the second most American foreign aid according to what I heard. That's up there with Israel and Iraq. We've turned a blind eye to an autocracy for over 40 years, where the press is not free and people who have political thoughts... get put in prison or worse. And we give them money. And now, we want the twittering lambs (as in lambs being led to slaughter) to rise against the establishment?
As well, what happens if this uprising is a success? What chance do we have of a stable democracy taking root? Look at Iraq? After all the money and weapons the world has pumped into there, what good has democracy done for them? Sure, the dictator is gone. Its been replaced by a bunch of people who have been elected (some say through fraud) and unable to make decisions. The car bombs still go off, the people still suffer. They no longer suffer from the no-fly zones or the lack of medical supplies thanks to sanctions. Just from other things. Its quite sad really, with all that oil and all that promise, how is Iraq really doing? My barber went back to Iraq. I hope he's well. But I am not sure it is a much better place than it was before he went back. I know that these things take time to setup, but in spite of all the fire-power, prodding by the Americans and billions of dollars, these people have not been able to sort out a government on their own thus far. What chance will Tunisia or Egypt have if something similar happened? Which country's tax payer is going to step up to pay for that?
The other thing to consider when cheering these people on is what replaces the current devil. As they say, better the devil you know. If Egypt becomes 'free', what happens if the Muslim Brotherhood forms a government? They're not exactly big fans of the West. Look at Iraq once more. What happened there? Saddam went away and he was replaced by Shia lunatics and Sunni lunatics. Not only do they not want to work with each other, their dislike of the West (and America in particular) is scary. The same thing seems to be happening in Lebanon. Hezbollah is now in power. Sometimes I wonder if we tinker around too much with the structures and principles of other countries. Should we really be telling them how to run their countries and what form of voting is right for them?
As well, not all revolutions are truly revolutionary. The Bolshevik revolution changed a large part of Europe and Asia. An autocratic Czar was replaced by a Politburo that itself was replaced a few decades later. But not before it caused all kinds of headaches for all sorts of people. But right next door, the Ukrainian Orange revolution sort of fizzled out. First there was a revolution, then the guys running the revolution couldn't agree on what to do with their spoils of revolution. Then they decided to fight each other in elections. Then they both lost and the guy they were initially revolting against is back in power once more. Who knows where it will go from here. They've been revolting since 2004 in Ukraine. Somehow I don't know if all those people who stood out in the cold (I remember seeing the cold and wondering what kind of dedication these people had to stand outside in the frigid winter, day after day, protesting) are happy with the state of affairs their country is in today. I don't know if saying that their revolution is in tatters is that far from the truth.
So what do we do now? I don't know. Maybe if we stay out of it and let them decide for themselves, it would be good. Maybe we can stop funding all these countries who really shouldn't be getting aid from us to continue oppressing their own people. Or others (like the Palestinians). And maybe we should set the record straight and admit to ourselves what we're doing. We do support dictators and criminals. Hell, we even give them safe havens (how do we explain all those Tunisian ex-government crooks having Canadian residency visas?). We do spend vast amounts of foreign aid for all sorts of purposes. Not all of them are that altruistic in nature. In fact, I would go so far as to say that we do everything with our own gain in mind. Let's try and do something good with our tax dollars. Let's end poverty in our own country first. Let's fix a city in Haiti (and by fix I mean, rebuild the infrastructure, get the vestiges of normal life going; schools, hospitals, agriculture, courts, that sort of thing).
I wish the folks trying to wrest their version of freedom and democracy from the devils that oppress them the best of luck. I hope you succeed and you build something better and fairer than the one you're trying to dismantle.
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